Team USA head coach Kara Lawson already warned the 2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup could be the hardest World Cup the United States had ever tried to win before the tournament even kicked off.

Now, after the group stage, things look much more serious after FIBA's latest surprising post.

FIBA released the fifth edition of its Women's World Cup power rankings on Instagram after the group stage ended Monday. France moved up one place to No. 1 on that list, while Team USA dropped to No. 2. Belgium, Spain and Australia completed the top five.

"THOUGHTS ON THIS? 💭 New volume of #FIBAWWC Power Rankings is out," FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup captioned that post.

Power rankings do not award medals or change tournament seeds. Team USA is still the reigning four-time defending World Cup champion, chasing a fifth straight gold medal and a 12th title overall.

But power rankings do measure who is playing the best basketball right now.

Team USA did not actually stumble through group play. Strip out one shaky night against Italy, they actually dominated the other teams.

They kicked off the tournament by defeating China 94-61. They closed out Group D on Monday with a 105-64 clinic against Czechia. Across their three group games, they added +77 point differential, beating teams by an average of nearly 26 points a night.

France also finished the group stage 3-0. But the difference is what happened in those three games.

France beat Hungary 99-53, South Korea 95-69 and Nigeria 111-56. That gave Les Bleues a massive +127-point differential, an average winning margin of more than 42 points per game.

So while Team USA survived a near upset, 55-52 against Italy, France looks almost dominant against every opponent.

Kara Lawson saw this storm coming all along

If anyone is unsurprised by these results, it must be Kara Lawson. Three days before the opener against China, Lawson revealed the reality of this FIBA World Cup.

"There's more depth to the teams at the World Cup. Now when you look at rosters, there's a number of just high-quality players... I think it's going to be the most difficult World Cup to win that we've had because of that," Lawson told ESPN.

She was not wrong. Team USA arrived in Berlin without A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum, who withdrew from the tournament for health reasons.

That left Lawson with a younger roster, including several players experiencing a major senior international tournament for the first time.

But beyond that, France already proved they can go toe-to-toe with the USA in the gold medal game at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Team USA barely survived a 67-66 thriller at that time. But France walked away with a silver medal and a belief that they could win.

Italy's game can be taken as an example, too. Just six months ago at the qualifying tournament in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Team USA blew out Italy by 34 points (93-59). In Berlin, that same Italian team pushed the Americans to the final seconds.

None of this means a fifth straight World Cup title is suddenly out of reach for Team USA. They're still favored, still undefeated, and still have the deepest roster. But the gap at the top isn't what it used to be.

Written by

Md Saife Fida