Elena Rybakina, World No. 2, has had to fight throughout 2026 for a goal that seemed impossible to achieve, but one shock at the Toronto tournament made this impossible goal possible in just four ranking points.

Aryna Sabalenka, World No. 1, has been defeated at the Canadian Open in the round of 16, with a score of 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, by Ekaterina Alexandrova, world No. 11. This result has left Sabalenka's ranking points frozen while Rybakina was continuing in the Toronto tournament.

Sabalenka's performance reflects a worrying trend that has characterized her 2026 season, despite having won three titles, including the Sunshine Double. She has failed to make it to the semis of Wimbledon, the Italian Open, Madrid Open, and Roland Garros.

Rybakina's point total stands at 7,786, only 884 points shy of Sabalenka's 8,670, and could reduce the point difference to just four points in case she lifts the trophy at the Canadian Open. She will next face Liudmila Samsonova, who is ranked 55th in the world, with a record of 2-4 against her.

The situation is not only about Toronto but also about Cincinnati, which makes the rankings more favorable for Rybakina. Sabalenka needs to protect 215 points from last year’s quarterfinal participation, whereas Rybakina has to defend 390 points from her semifinal participation there.

It creates one of the most closely contested title battles seen on the women’s circuit in years.

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina Set Up a Tight Race for World No. 1

Sabalenka has occupied the No. 1 position easily for the past two years, but 2026 has made it clear that there are some serious holes in her reign at the top.

Her early-round defeats at three out of the four grand slams this season have eaten away at an advantage that once seemed unassailable.

On the other hand, Rybakina has been more consistent and has already secured a victory against Sabalenka in the Australian Open final earlier this year. The run of Rybakina at Toronto was boosted by the surprising exits of Jessica Pegula, Mirra Andreeva, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff.

With Cincinnati looming right after Toronto, both players know the next few weeks could decide who enters the US Open as the game's top-ranked player, making this stretch one of the most closely watched in recent WTA history.

Do you think Elena Rybakina can finally overtake Aryna Sabalenka for the world No. 1 ranking? Comment down and let us know.

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Written by

Utsav Gupta

Edited by

Utsav Gupta