A'ja Wilson remains the clear favorite for the 2026 WNBA MVP award. She's once again outscoring the league and anchoring one of its best defenses. With only four games left on the regular-season schedule, the race looks almost decided.

WNBA data analyst Kyle Ingram doesn't see it that way.

In a detailed breakdown shared on X, Ingram explained why Caitlin Clark's production this season isn't just good; it's something the league has never actually seen before.

Ingram describes this MVP race on X as a clash of two different kinds of greats.

On one side, Wilson dominates the paint and leads the league in scoring at 26.0 points per game.

On the other side, Clark sits third in the league in scoring at 22.5 points per game while assisting a good number of baskets for her teammates.

But Ingram pointed out, "The case against Wilson isn't that she's not playing amazing basketball. It's that we've seen this before, and this isn't even her best year."

Wilson's 2024 season sits at the top. That year, she averaged 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds while producing a 20.6 defensive mark.

Meanwhile, Clark sits third in the WNBA in scoring, a razor-thin margin behind Alyssa Thomas (8.42) for the league lead in assists, and ranks top-five in made three-pointers.

To put that into context, Ingram pointed out that only three players finished top-three in both scoring and assists in the same season since 1997: Becky Hammon (2009), Diana Taurasi (2013), and Caitlin Clark (2026).

Clark leads all three in both points and assists. And when we set the filter to 20+ points and 8+ assists per game, Clark is the only player in WNBA history standing in that box.

One common knock on Clark is that her numbers come against the league's weaker teams. It's true. However, Ingram noted that a team's win-loss record is not the same as its defensive skill. So when he split the games by defensive rating, the gap vanished:

Against bottom-half defenses: Clark averages 22.6 PPG

Against top-half defenses: Clark averages 22.3 PPG

The most eye-opening part of Ingram's study is the assist network.

Out of 329 field goals made by Wilson, 77% were assisted. Jackie Young set up 39% of her baskets, and Chelsea Gray added another 26%. Only 23% of Wilson’s scoring was self-created. In contrast, out of 259 field goals made by Clark, 70% were unassisted.

Among the league's top ten scorers, only rookie Olivia Miles creates a higher percentage of her own baskets than Clark.

But Clark directly assists on 22% of Indiana's total field goals and has assisted on 24% of backcourt partner Kelsey Mitchell's made shots this season.

So, what's the argument against Clark?

Clark also leads the league in turnovers at roughly 4.6 per game, and her plus-minus trails every other name in the MVP conversation.

Efficiency is also part of the MVP conversation, not just the volume. And that's where the doubts creep in.

But Ingram's counter is that raw turnover totals mean little without context. Clark is turning over roughly one more time a game than Thomas — while scoring 8.3 more points a game than Thomas does.

He also noted that Clark's turnover rate has fallen every season she's played (from 5.6 two seasons ago to 4.6 now) even as her scoring and assist numbers climbed.

Another obstacle for Clark is the history of the award itself.

Only three players have ever won MVP as a pure guard: Cynthia Cooper in 1997 and 1998, and Diana Taurasi in 2009. Since Taurasi's award, sixteen seasons have passed without another guard winning.

Can Clark break that barrier? The question remains.

Written by

Md Saife Fida